Photo:  Kampala Central Business District in 2007. © Muniini K. Mulera                                      

The question is mine. The answer is not mine. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is here, and everywhere. It is very useful, and potentially dangerous. It is to be treasured and handled with extreme care. 

AI already affects you and me, and will continue to grow exponentially, to our benefit and to the potential destruction of humanity. This is not to cause fear, but to urge respect and caution, for we are beneficiaries of this dangerous material, which we are called upon to handle with utmost care and vigilance.

To a writer, AI is a boon that can transform an idea or question into text that effortlessly delivers one’s message. Whereas I am very reluctant to use AI to “write my thoughts” down, I am continuing to explore its capabilities to determine whether I can use it without surrendering my intellectual and literary efforts to it. 

So far, I have been impressed by AI’s capabilities, and particularly stunned by Claude, a large language model (LLM) by Anthropic, an AI research and development company that is owned by Dario Amodei and Daniella Amodei, two American siblings from California.  Claude, which was introduced to me by Eric Rugundu, my London-based Ugandan friend who understands AI better than me, answered my question the way a human would have done.

I asked Claude: Would Kampala elect Zohran Mamdani as its mayor? Here is its unedited answer:  

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“The question of whether Kampala would elect someone like Zohran Mamdani—an Indian Ugandan—cuts deeper than ordinary ethnic politics. It confronts Uganda's unresolved relationship with its Asian minority and tests whether citizenship trumps racial identity.

The Asian Question

Uganda's Asian community, predominantly of Indian and Pakistani origin, occupies a unique and uncomfortable position. They've lived in Uganda for generations—many families arrived in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Yet they remain perpetually "other" in ways that even non-Baganda Africans don't.

Idi Amin's 1972 expulsion of approximately 60,000 Asians remains a defining trauma. Whilst many returned after Amin's fall, the episode embedded a message: Asians don't truly belong, regardless of citizenship or birth. Their economic success—dominating retail, manufacturing, and professional services—generates both admiration and resentment.

The Brutal Reality

Let's be direct: Kampala probably wouldn't elect an Asian mayor in 2025. The barriers aren't primarily about tolerance—they're about identity, history, and political calculation.

First, the citizenship question. Many Kampalans don't view Asians as "real" Ugandans, even when they hold citizenship, speak local languages, and were born in Uganda. There's a persistent sense that Asians are temporary residents, that their loyalty lies elsewhere, that they're economic opportunists rather than genuine members of the national community. This isn't fair, but it's real.

Second, the economic dimension. Asian businesses control significant sectors of Kampala's economy. Resentment over this dominance surfaces regularly—accusations of exploiting workers, refusing to hire Africans for senior positions, maintaining closed business networks. A mayoral candidate from this community would face immediate allegations of representing Asian business interests rather than ordinary Kampalans.

Campaign Realities

Imagine the campaign. Opposition politicians would deploy barely coded language about "outsiders", about candidates who "don't understand our struggles", about protecting Kampala for "its people". State-controlled media might prove surprisingly restrained—the NRM government maintains good relations with the Asian business community. But social media would explode with explicit racism that polite society pretends doesn't exist.

The candidate's qualifications wouldn't matter much. Fluent Luganda? "Still not one of us." Born in Kampala? "But your loyalty is to your community, not ours." Progressive politics? "You don't understand what ordinary Ugandans face." Every credential becomes evidence of difference rather than qualification.

The Class Divide

Wealthy, educated Kampalans might support an Asian candidate in private conversations. They work alongside Asians, socialize with them, recognize their contributions. But this demographic doesn't determine elections. Working-class voters in Katwe, Kisenyi, and Bwaise—who experience more direct economic competition with Asian businesses—would likely reject such a candidate decisively.

The political parties understand this. No major party would risk fielding an Asian candidate for mayor. The potential backlash outweighs any possible benefit. It's not about principle—it's about winning.

Historical Context Matters

The 1972 expulsion didn't happen in isolation. It built on decades of resentment, colonial-era racial hierarchies, and economic grievances. Asians were middlemen under British rule, positioned between European colonizers and African subjects. This created lasting animosity that Amin exploited but didn't invent.

Post-1986, Museveni welcomed Asian return and protected their economic interests. This pragmatism aided Uganda's economic development but didn't resolve underlying tensions. The Asian community remains economically powerful but politically marginal—influential through business connections and financial contributions, not electoral representation.

A Theoretical Path

Could anything change this? Perhaps over generations, if:

• The Asian community increased intermarriage with other Ugandans.
• Young Asians became prominent in popular culture, media, and sports.
• Economic inequality decreased, reducing resentment of Asian wealth.
• National identity strengthened enough to supersede racial categorization.

• But these changes require decades. The original question asks about now.

The Honest Answer

Would Kampala elect Zohran Mamdani or someone similar? No. Not because every Kampalan harbours active prejudice, but because enough do, and because political actors would exploit this prejudice ruthlessly. An Asian candidate would lose badly, probably across all constituencies.

This isn't unique to Kampala or Uganda. Many societies struggle to elect leaders from historically marginalized or economically dominant minorities. The question reveals uncomfortable truths about how deeply racial and ethnic identity still determine political possibilities.

Kampala has elected non-Baganda Africans to various positions. That's genuine progress. But an Asian mayor represents a different threshold entirely—one the city isn't ready to cross.”

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The above is AI’s “opinion.” I suspect that had I not revealed the truth, you would have assumed that it was my writing. Without access to AI tracker (detector) software, it may be difficult to distinguish between artificial intelligence and original human intelligence at work. The implications, in the short-term at least, are enormous and scary. In the long-term, it will be the norm. I trust that Uganda’s educators are preparing their charges for this reality.