Botswana’s democratic backsliding need not be fatal

Photo: Botswana Parliament Building in Gaberone

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The Republic of Botswana has enjoyed a very high place on the honor roll of Africa’s stable democracies since its independence on September 30, 1966. It has only been second to Mauritius on the Democracy Index by the Economist newspaper, and in the opinion of many. It has enjoyed a place of honor in this column, with frequent references to that country as one with a desirable path that other African states, especially my homeland Uganda, should emulate.

Sir Seretse Goitsebeng Maphiri Khama, Botswana’s first president, and Ketumile Quett Masire and Festus Gontebanye Mogae, the country’s second and third presidents, respectively, stand very tall among world leaders who exercised power with humility, fairness, integrity, and fidelity to democracy and the rule of law. They are among very few African leaders with unblemished political legacies that have withstood scrutiny many years after their presidencies.

Whereas Botswana is essentially a “dominant-party state,” with the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) enjoying uninterrupted control of the government since independence, its elections and its state institutions have been impressive examples of intentional pursuit of justice, transparency and democracy.

However, recent news from Botswana has been concerning. The Democracy Index ranked Botswana in 2023 as a “flawed democracy”. The Varieties of Democracy Institute, another respected organization that studies and offers objective reports on the state of democracy in the world, reported in 2024 that Botswana had experienced “democratic backsliding over the last ten years.” According to these organizations, Botswana, previously considered a liberal democracy, is now in the grey zone between electoral democracy and electoral autocracy.

As we await the country’s next parliamentary elections on October 30 this year, and the subsequent election of the country’s next president by the new legislature, we are watching with interest to seen whether Botswana will reclaim its good reputation. President Mokgweetsi Keabetswe Masisi, Botswana’s fifth president who has been in power since 2018, is facing a potentially more serious challenge than his predecessors. Among the big-name politicians campaigning against him is his immediate predecessor, Lt. Gen. Seretse Khama Ian Khama, the country’s fourth president, who is reported to be a key supporter of the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF).

The BPF was formed following a major split between Ian Khama and Masisi, two previous political allies that are now engaged in a very bitter war of words. The tension between the two men has at times sounded like that between Kenya’s Uhuru Kenyatta and his successor William Samoei Ruto. The difference is that Khama, who elevated Masisi to the vice-presidency and leadership of the BDP, enabling the latter to succeed him as president, has spent nearly three years in political exile in South Africa and Eswatini. Khama fled his homeland in November 2021 and, alleging that he feared for his life because his successor wished him harm. President Masisi has denied that allegation. It has been reported that fifteen members of Ian Khama’s family are also in exile.

The Botswana government subsequently charged Khama with fourteen crimes, including illegal ownership of firearms, money laundering, and handling stolen property. President Khama denied the allegations and accused President Masisi of orchestrating the charges for political reasons. Things got worse when Khama failed to show up for a court appearance in Gaberone in April 2022. A warrant for his arrest was issued. For his part, Khama alleged that there was a plot to poison him.

Those of us who had considered Botswana to be above this type of political combat had our confidence deflated. I, for one, began to fear that one of my favourite countries had been bitten by the nasty bug that had derailed the hopes of hundreds of millions in other parts of Africa.

However, there have been some remarkable developments in Botswana that have given us reason to hope that that country’s political leaders may retreat from the dangerous path that has been the ruin of many African countries. First, President Masisi, speaking on the record a few months ago, assured the world that his predecessor had nothing to fear. Second, Ian Khama’s diplomatic passport was renewed. This was quite remarkable to my ears that are used to the pettiness that afflict many governments of insecure rulers. Third, on Thursday September 13, Ian Khama literally drove himself from his exile home to Botswana and presented himself before a magistrate in Gaberone to request that his arrest warrant be dropped. The arrest warrant was dropped, and he proclaimed his innocence. A court date was set for September 23.

Then Ian Khama drove out of Botswana on the same day and returned to his home in exile. It all sounds like a movie, for it is hard to imagine an exiled president, a vocal opponent of the incumbent leader of his country, who is a retired army lieutenant general and former army commander, being allowed to leave his country without harassment, even arrest under some newly trumped up charges, such as the usual stuff about being “a threat to state security.”

The whole episode revealed Ian Khama’s courage, President Masisi’s wisdom, both men’s respect for the rule of law, and Botswana’s good chances of taking corrective actions to reclaim its place among liberal democracies. The episode gave us a hint that there is a real possibility for the two men to seek restoration of a civil relationship between them. They do not have to belong to the same political party. That is part of the democratic freedom that made Botswana a shining example in the past. However, they have a duty to sue for peace and ensure that political disagreement in their country remains civil and free of the threats and violence that are routine in many countries in Africa.

The current political campaign and the elections next month will be a major test for Botswana. How President Masisi and former President Khama resolve their conflict will be a major test of their claim to statesmanship and civilised leadership of their 2.7 million fellow citizens. Botswana’s democratic backsliding need not be fatal. We hope its political leaders on both sides reverse course. The world is watching.